[Bloomberg] 11월 美 서비스업에 가속도가 붙을 듯(2011.12.5)

U.S. Services Probably Accelerated in Nov.
11월 美 서비스업에 가속도가 붙을 듯 

By Bob Willis - Dec 4, 2011

Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in November at the fastest pace in six months,
a sign the economy is accelerating in the final months of 2011, economists said before a report tomorrow.
11월 미국 서비스 업종은 지난 6개월래 가장 빠른 확장세를 보일 것으로 전망되고, 이는 곧 12월 경제회복에
가속도가 붙는 신호라고 ISM비제조업(서비스업)지수 발표 하루 앞두고 전문가들은 말했다. 

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 53.8 last month after 52.9 in October,
according to the median forecast of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of the Tempe, Arizona
based-group’s data. Others reports may show consumer confidence rose this month and factory orders fell
in October.
공급관리자협회(ISM)의 비제조업 지수는  10월 52.9를 기록한 후 11월에는 전문가들을 대상으로한 예측치
조사에서 53.8로 상승했다. 소비자신뢰지수는 이번달 상승했고, 공장주문은 10월에 하락했다. 

The services data may indicate broader improvement in the economy at year-end
after reports last week showed a pickup in manufacturing, less consumer pessimism
and declining unemployment. At the same time, risks remain that Europe’s debt crisis
and slower global growth will prompt U.S. companies to cut back.
지난주 나온 지표에서 제조업 지수, 소비자신뢰도 개선세와 실업률 감소를 보인 후,
나오게 되는 서비스 지표는 연말 경기가 개선될 것임을 보여준다.

“We seem to be on more solid footing, but at the same time the external risks have risen as well,”
Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Nomura International Securities Inc. in New York.
"우리 경제의 기초가 더 단단해진 것 같다. 하지만 외부의 위험 요인 또한 증가하고 있다"고
노무라의 경제분석가 Ellen Zentner는 말했다. 

Estimates for the services index in the Bloomberg survey ranged
from 51.5 to 55. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
블룸버그가 조사한 서비스 지수의 추정치는 51.5에서 55의 범위였다.
확장과 수축을 결정하는 기준점은 50이다.
 
A report from the Labor Department last week showed the unemployment rate fell
to 8.6 percent last month, the lowest since March 2009, from 9 percent.
Payrolls climbed by 120,000 after a revised 100,000 increase in October.
노동부가 지난주 발표한 보고서에서 실업률은 지난달 8.6% 하락했고, 이는 9%였던
2009년 3월 이래 최저치다. 취업자수는 10월에 10만명 증가 후, 11월엔 12만 명 증가했다.
 

Service Jobs

Employment at service-providers increased 126,000, including a 50,000 gain at retailers on hiring
for holiday shopping season. The number of temporary workers rose by 22,300.
서비스업 고용은 홀리데이 쇼핑시즌을 위해 고용된 5만명을 포함해 12만6천명 증가했다.
일용직은 2만2천3백명 증가. 

Transportation companies are joining retailers such as Kohl’s Corp. and Macy’s Inc. (M) 
in boosting holiday staff.
운송업체들도 쇼핑시즌 고용에 동참했다. 

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) may hire 55,000 holiday workers this year,
a 10 percent increase from 2010, to help with shipping gains bolstered by online shopping,
the company said Nov. 7. More than 120 million packages may be delivered in the week before Christmas,
up 6 percent from last year, the world’s largest package-delivery company said in a statement.

U.S. consumers poured into the malls and took to the Web during Thanksgiving weekend,
spending a record $52.4 billion at a pace that may be hard to sustain
as the holiday shopping season gets under way, 
the National Retail Federation said, citing a survey from BIGresearch.

Coach Inc. (COH), the largest U.S. luxury handbag maker, expects an “excellent holiday season,”
partly due to shoppers’ “strong interest” in accessories for self-purchase,
Chief Executive Officer Lew Frankfort said on a conference call last week.

Holiday Sales

Limited Brands Inc. and Macy’s posted November same-store sales that topped analysts’ estimates
as Thanksgiving weekend deals drew record crowds,
while chains such as Kohl’s and Target Corp. failed to take advantage of pent-up demand.

Retailers have outperformed the broader market this year.
The Standard and Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index (S15RETL) rose 5 percent
through last week while the S&P 500 Index fell 1.1 percent.

Consumer confidence probably picked up this month,
the preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey for December may show on Dec. 9.
Confidence rose to 65.8 from 64.1 at the end of November, according to economists’ forecasts.
톰슨로이터/미시건대 소비자 신뢰지수는 11월 64.1에서 65.8로 상승할 것이란 예측

A report the same day from the Commerce Department may show the trade deficit was little changed in October.
The gap may come in at $44 billion, up from $43.1 billion in September, according to the median forecast.

Fewer Claims

Jobless claims probably fell to 395,000 last week from 402,000 the prior week,
economists forecast the Labor Department will report Dec. 8.
실업수당 청구건수는 전주 402,000건 대비 지난주 395,000건으로 줄어들었을 것이라고
전문가들은 예측한다. 

The ISM services survey covers industries ranging from utilities and retailing to health care and finance.
ISM 서비스 조사에는 유틸리티, 소매업에서 헬스케어와 금융까지 포함된다.

A report by the same group on Dec. 1 showed manufacturing last month
expanded at the fastest pace in five month, boosted by gains in orders and production.
12/1 발표된 ISM제조업 지수는 주문과 생산 증가에 힘입어 5개월래  가장 빠른 증가세를 보였다.

The Commerce Department will report today at 10 a.m. that factory orders in October
fell 0.3 percent as demand for aircraft waned,
according to the median projection in the Bloomberg survey.
Bookings climbed 0.3 percent the prior month,
상무부는 10월 공장주문 건수를 발표하는데 Bloomberg에서 조사한 바로는 0.3% 하락이 예상된다.

The Federal Reserve last week said the U.S. economy expanded at a “slow to moderate” pace
in 11 of its 12 districts in October and the first half of November,
led by gains in manufacturing and consumer spending.
“Hiring was generally subdued” and residential real estate “generally remained sluggish,”
the Fed said. “Consumer spending increased modestly, on balance.”
Fed는 지난주 미국 경제가 10월과 11월중순까지 12개 중 11개 지역에서 "둔화에서 보통 단계"로 확장되는
국면이라고 했고, 이는 제조와 소비 증가에 힘입은 것이다. 
 

                       Bloomberg Survey

==============================================================
                        Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
==============================================================
ISM NonManu Index         12/5      Nov.      52.9      53.8
Factory Orders MOM%       12/5      Oct.      0.3%     -0.3%
Initial Claims ,000’s     12/8     3-Dec      402       395
Whlsale Inv. MOM%         12/8      Oct.     -0.1%      0.3%
Trade Balance $ Blns      12/9      Oct.     -43.1     -44.0
U of Mich Conf. Index     12/9     Dec. P     64.1      65.8
==============================================================